Never trust long range forecasts

Sean McSeveny
  · Sean McSeveny  · May 8, 2015

A few days ago I looked at the weather forecast for the weekend, and it looked terrible for Saturday. I then start to change the plans I had, to move them to Sunday. Now I see that with the weekend almost upon us, the weather looks reasonable for Saturday. Hopefully I can turn my plans back around and now fish both days. I think the moral of this story is, be flexible and react to the short range forecasts. It could mean the difference between a good day and a blank.

When I talk about the  weather, I actually mean the wind. I don’t care at all whether it will rain, snow or shine, just as long as I know which direction the wind is coming from and how strong it will be. After all what’s the point in investing in good quality waterproof clothing if your not going to use it 🙂

So what can we expect this weekend? Although the sea has calmed down considerably, we have an issue with May water. Chesil seems to be particularly effected by it, as the clarity is pretty poor. Having said that, Portland Harbour and Weymouth bay seem a lot clearer. Several species that don’t seem to care what colour the water is, are Rays and Smoothound. If you use large smelly baits such as Peeler Crab and Mackerel, you stand a good chance of picking up one of these larger fish.

Smoothhound Chesil Beach June

Our newest contributor Darren Mills will be out this weekend after Rays and Smoothound, so we can all look forward to his first report next week. If you missed the fact that we now have two new contributors have a look at yesterdays post.

Sea Conditions: Water temperature 11.6°c

Chesil Beach:  Calm, with lightly coloured water.

Portland:Calm, with lightly coloured water.

Portland Harbour: Wavelets with clear water

Weymouth Bay: Calm with lightly coloured water

Chesil Beach forecast: Small tides this weekend. This is often the better size tides for the Plaice. THe water clarity will be an issue so make sure you use plenty of beads and attractors.

Mackerel will be around if the water clarity improves. If it continues to be as bad as it is today then expect Dogfish and Pout during the day.

Portland: The Wrasse will be feeding hard now that they are around in numbers. Night tides should produce Conger.

Portland Harbour: You can find a number of sheltered marks within the harbour, that will provide an opportunity to catch Flounder, Thornback and maybe even a Bass.

I have heard of reports from Cornwall of anglers there catching Gilthead Bream. It makes me wonder if it is worth having a go for the Gilthead in Portland Harbour yet. Gilthead Bream love Mussels, Peeler Crab and Lugworm. Like Black Bream, they have fairly small mouths, so small circle type hooks on Flurocarbon snoods are ideal.

Weymouth Bay: Another mark that is ideal in strong SW winds. The piers as usual continue to produce small Wrasse, Pollock and Pout. Try float fishing with a strip of mackerel to catch Garfish, Mackerel and Pollock.

If you prefer an open beach, then head to Preston, where you have a good chance of Dabs and Flounder.

Guiding: I am now taking bookings for Plaice trips as well as some basic fishing workshops for the next month. In the workshops I teach all sorts of skills, that will give you a good grounding for your fishing adventures for the rest of the year. I am happy to do lure or bait sessions and the workshops are 2 hours long and limited to 3 people. May is when I start my lure guiding sessions, where I will be targeting Bass, Pollock and Wrasse. These are my most popular guides so book up early if you want to get on one.

This year we will be offering boat guiding sessions from your own boat, from Weymouth and Portland and shore guiding in the Poole and Purbeck area. If you want more details then drop me an email to [email protected]

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4 Responses to "Never trust long range forecasts"
  1. Adrian Graham says:

    Hi Sean,

    I was wondering whether the recent bad weather will bring on the May water, or whether it is independent on weather. I would be interested in your view.

    Keep up the good work!

    Adrian

    • Sean McSeveny Sean McSeveny says:

      Hi Adrian.
      It is good weather that brings on May Water. It is an algae bloom caused by an increase in sunshine and water temperatures. When we have rough weather it normally helps to break it up.

  2. adrian.horne says:

    i have resently taken up lure fishing and have had many a trip to portland i like fishing in the harbour but yet to have caught any bass at all i wandered if you had any tips for location and if you knew of any clubs or other lure anglers that i could meet up with .

    • Sean McSeveny Sean McSeveny says:

      Hi Adrian.
      If you have been fishing the harbour this year, then you have started too early. The Bass should start to move into the harbour any time now. Perhaps you should consider one of my guiding sessions. I can’t guarantee fish, but I can guarantee that you will learn a lot, and save yourself a lot of time and money in the long term.

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